China Set to Massively Surpass Its 2030 Wind and Solar Goal

China is projected to significantly exceed its 2030 targets for wind and solar power capacity, which is positive for global climate change efforts but indicates rising pressure on the nation's power grid [para. 1][para. 3]. China aimed to install at least 1,200 gigawatts (GW) by the end of the decade; however, it is expected to surpass this target as early as next month, according to Heymi Bahar, a senior analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA) [para. 2]. By April, China’s wind and solar capacity was already at 1,130 GW, and it’s set to hit 1,200 GW within the year, six years ahead of schedule [para. 3]. Bahar stated that it was not surprising, as China has historically overachieved in its renewable goals [para. 4].

At a recent solar power conference in Shanghai, Huang Zhen, an energy expert from the Chinese Academy of Engineering, projected that China’s cumulative wind and solar capacity would be at least 2,200 GW, and very likely 2,400 GW by 2030, nearly double the original target [para. 5][para. 6]. This means that from 530 GW in 2020, China's wind and solar capacity could grow fourfold in just ten years, noted Huang [para. 7].

Globally, a milestone was reached at COP28, the United Nations’ climate change conference, with nearly 120 countries setting a collective goal to triple world renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030. Although China didn’t support this pledge at the summit, it backed it in a joint statement with the U.S. earlier [para. 11]. The IEA estimates that China’s renewable capacity will exceed 3,000 GW by 2030, constituting 40% of the global total [para. 12]. Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, remarked that China has the greatest potential to deliver on this pledge among major economies [para. 13].

China's renewable capacity, including wind, solar, hydro, and thermal power, is expected to grow 2.5 times from 2022 to 2030 [para. 14]. In 2022 alone, China's renewable capacity increased by almost 350 GW, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the global total [para. 15].

Despite these advancements, China faces challenges with rapid renewable expansion. Its power generation from wind and solar in 2023 constituted 37% of the global total, enough to power Japan; wind and solar also contributed a record 16% to China’s total power generation, above the global average of 13% [para. 19]. However, a higher rate of wind and solar curtailment is likely, as power generated isn't always needed immediately [para. 20][para. 21]. To address this, China has lowered a key renewable target, allowing more curtailment to help provincial governments grow their renewable sectors while meeting goals [para. 22].

The rapid construction of renewable projects outpaces the grid’s capacity to integrate them, typically requiring three to five years for grid adaptation versus six months for building renewable projects [para. 23]. China's fossil-fuel-centric power system poses additional challenges in integrating intermittent renewable energy [para. 25][para. 26]. Solutions may include expanding energy storage and enhancing cross-provincial electricity trade, although coal power has not been substantially retired, causing simultaneous development of fossil and renewable energies, which presents future challenges [para. 28][para. 29][para. 33].

Lastly, Bahar forecasted a consolidation among Chinese solar manufacturers due to overcapacity and intense price competition in the market, which could lead to new projects being postponed or canceled [para. 34].