Energy Insider: China Could Double Wind and Solar Capacity Goal By 2030, Solar Panel Manufacturers Warn of ‘Interim Overcapacity’

This week's Caixin energy wrap highlights China's significant developments in the energy sector, including policy updates, industry insights, major projects, and technological advancements [para. 1]. Key topics covered are:

1. **Potential Doubling of Wind and Solar Capacity by 2030**: An energy expert, Huang Zhen, announced China’s cumulative wind and solar power capacity is expected to reach at least 2,200 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, potentially hitting 2,400 GW [para. 3]. This forecast nearly doubles the government's target of installing over 1,200 GW by 2030, showing a projected fourfold increase from 530 GW in 2020 [para. 3]. The International Energy Agency (IEA) corroborated this optimistic outlook, predicting that China would achieve its 1,200 GW goal by 2024, years ahead of schedule [para. 3].

2. **Interim Overcapacity in Solar Manufacturing**: At an industry conference, Chinese solar manufacturing executives cautioned about an "interim overcapacity" [para. 5]. Li Gang, chairman of Seraphim Energy, noted that China’s solar module manufacturing capacity has reached approximately 861 GW, enough to replicate two decades of work in just nine months if fully utilized [para. 5]. Despite these warnings, officials like Ding Xiufeng from Inner Mongolia argued that the demand from developing countries justifies further expansion [para. 5].

3. **Reduction in New-Energy Utilization Targets**: China lowered the renewable power utilization rate for provincial governments from 95% to 90%, due to the grid's difficulty in absorbing the burgeoning wind and solar energy output [para. 7]. Zheng Ying from Tsinghua University suggested that maintaining the higher target would necessitate expensive energy storage facilities, weakening the competitiveness of renewable energy [para. 7]. Last December, China’s renewable power capacity exceeded that of thermal power for the first time [para. 7].

4. **Growth in Hydrogen-Fueled Vehicles**: Ouyang Minggao from Tsinghua University projected that China could have more than 1 million fuel-cell vehicles on the road by 2035 [para. 9]. This year nearly 10,000 fuel-cell vehicles are expected to be sold, with figures rising to over 50,000 by 2025 [para. 9]. Key advancements in vehicle parameters include improved power output, efficiency, longevity, and nearly halved production costs [para. 9]. However, high production costs remain a constraint, as evidenced by their current market share of just 0.06% amongst new-energy vehicles sold in 2023 [para. 9].

5. **Biofuel-Powered Flights**: China has made a notable advancement in green aviation with test flights of two planes powered partly by biofuel derived from "gutter oil" [para. 11]. The biofuel, produced by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec), was mixed with conventional aviation fuel in a 40:60 ratio [para. 11]. This effort contributes to China’s strategy to decarbonize its aviation industry, which is responsible for roughly 1% of national carbon emissions, highlighting an important breakthrough in incorporating domestically developed planes and biofuel [para. 11].

In conclusion, these highlights from Caixin underscore China’s ambitious strides and ongoing challenges in achieving sustainable energy growth, making significant advancements in renewables, hydrogen fuel technology, and green aviation. The developments indicate a strong push toward meeting, if not surpassing, national and global renewable energy targets, while balancing the complexities of market demand and infrastructural capabilities.