Post-Pandemic Rebound in Film Market Levels Off as Supply, Demand Concerns Re-Emerge(AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】电影市场疫后反弹趋平淡 供需隐忧重新浮现

As the summer box office season starts, film companies were visibly anxious at the Shanghai International Film Festival about audience return to theaters [para. 1]. On June 17, 2024, Alibaba Pictures unveiled seven major Chinese-language films, but only two will release during the summer season, while others remain in production or pre-production [para. 2]. During a confidence-boosting event, Alibaba Pictures president Li Jie stated that the Chinese film market, despite booming, faces pressures from declining viewer numbers and competition from other types of video content [para. 3].

The "Dragon Boat Festival Box Office" from June 8-10, 2024, saw a significant downturn, with revenue dropping by 58% year-on-year despite increased screening counts [para. 4]. Maoyan Pro statistics indicated that, as of June 21, 2024, total box office revenue was down by 800 million yuan compared to the previous year, with a significant drop in viewer numbers and average viewers per screening [para. 5].

Industry executives expressed concerns over declining enthusiasm for movie-watching, highlighting economic pressures and weaker demand for new films [para. 6][para. 7]. The concentrated supply of blockbuster films accumulated during the pandemic led to a record summer box office in 2023, but the current market faced gaps in new releases [para. 8][para. 9].

The digital transformation of the entertainment scene has led to increased availability of films on video platforms shortly after their theatrical release, further challenging traditional cinema attendance. Internet companies have engaged deeply with the film industry, accelerating digitization [para. 10][para. 11]. Despite an increase in the number of cinema screens nationwide from 34,000 in 2015 to 77,000 in 2023, cinema occupancy remains low [para. 11].

Hollywood's strike in 2023 has delayed many blockbuster releases, creating opportunities for Chinese films to go global [para. 12]. In April, British firm Gower Street Analytics predicted a global box office of $32.3 billion in 2024, with a decrease in the U.S. market but slight growth in China [para. 12]. AI application in the film industry is rising, especially with the release of OpenAI's video generation model Sora, which could mark significant technological advancements [para. 13].

Urgent supply-demand imbalances have been noted, with a gap in the release schedule of major projects [para. 14]. The volume and quality of upcoming film releases are crucial for market stability, and industry insiders emphasized the unpredictability of audience tastes and the challenge of creating films that appeal to them [para. 15][para. 16]. Rapid changes in preferences complicate marketing strategies and require continuous adjustments [para. 17].

Recent box office results show volatile performance, with major periods seeing unpredictable revenues [para. 18][para. 19]. Investment in film projects has become more cautious, leading to a concentration of resources on high-budget films and sidelining smaller projects [para. 20]. Despite financial rationality, the formula for a successful blockbuster remains elusive [para. 21].

Domestically successful films are increasingly looking for international markets. For instance, "Creation of the Gods I: Kingdom of Storms" explored overseas distribution, reflecting broader efforts of Chinese films to appeal internationally [para. 22][para. 23]. Chinese films are still struggling to achieve significant international box office success, largely due to a lack of internationally influential IPs and inadequate global distribution infrastructure [para. 24][para. 25].

Hollywood's creative slump and ongoing discussions about Chinese films' global reach juxtapose with increased AI integration in film production. AI holds promise for enhancing productivity but poses questions about maintaining the essence of human creativity in filmmaking [para. 26][para. 27][para. 28]. Leading companies in China are embracing AI technologies in animation and feature film production [para. 29][para. 30], and industry leaders are preparing for a future where AI plays a significant role in the film and television landscape [para. 31].